Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Rules against power: Does the world need a new economic alliance to balance the US and China? Independent Thinking podcast
English Summary
A new Chatham House report proposes creating an economic alliance—a 'third pole'—to prevent the US and China from undermining the rules-based global economic order. The analysis explores how such a bloc could function, which countries might join, and how major powers would likely react to this challenge. This suggests growing recognition of the need for multilateral economic coordination to address great power competition and preserve global governance structures, though implementation faces significant political obstacles.
中文摘要
一份新的查田學會報告提議建立一個經濟聯盟，即「第三極」，旨在防止美國和中國破壞基於規則的全球經濟秩序。該分析探討了此類集團的運作機制、潛在成員國，以及主要大國可能對此挑戰的反應。這顯示出各方日益認識到，為應對大國競爭並維護全球治理結構，多邊經濟協調至關重要，儘管其實施仍面臨重大的政治障礙。
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