While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
The Dream Palace of the West
English Summary
The analysis argues that the future trajectory of global order—whether it trends toward cooperation, fragmentation, or domination—will be determined by the actions of the Global South. It critiques Western powers for failing to engage in genuine dialogue, instead adopting a unilateral 'monologue' approach that is alienating the developing world. For the West to maintain influence, the publication stresses that it must urgently shift its strategy from imposing narratives to actively listening to and incorporating the needs and perspectives of the Global South. Failure to adapt this diplomatic approach risks undermining Western leadership and stability in the coming geopolitical era.
中文摘要
本分析指出，全球秩序的未來走向——無論是趨向合作、碎片化還是單方面支配——將取決於全球南方（Global South）的行動。文章批判西方大國未能進行真誠的對話，反而採取了單方面「獨白」式的做法，導致與發展中國家產生疏離。出版物強調，若西方要維持其影響力，必須緊急調整戰略，從強加既有敘事轉變為積極傾聽並納入全球南方對自身需求和視角的考量。若未能調整這種外交方式，將有損西方在未來地緣政治時代的領導地位與穩定性。
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