While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
The New Arteries of Power
English Summary
The article argues that global fiber-optic cables, which carry 99% of transoceanic digital traffic, have become critical, yet highly vulnerable, arteries of modern power. While these cables underpin global finance, diplomacy, and military communications, the seabed has transformed into an arena of great-power competition, sabotage, and surveillance. As risks escalate and trust erodes, the infrastructure that powers the global economy is increasingly contested. Policymakers must therefore reassess the security and resilience of these vital digital lifelines to mitigate geopolitical risks and maintain global connectivity.
中文摘要
本文論述全球光纖電纜承載了99%的跨洋數位流量，已成為現代權力體系中至關重要卻極易受損的動脈。儘管這些電纜支撐著全球金融、外交和軍事通訊，但海底已轉變為大國競爭、破壞和監控的戰場。隨著風險升級和信任瓦解，驅動全球經濟的基礎設施正日益受到爭奪。因此，政策制定者必須重新評估這些關鍵數位生命線的安全性與韌性，以緩解地緣政治風險並維持全球互聯性。
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