The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
After Paris
English Summary
Ten years after the Paris Agreement, global environmental ambitions are undergoing a significant transformation, shifting away from purely multilateral commitments toward national, state-controlled agendas. This recalibration is driven by mounting concerns over sluggish economic growth, societal polarization, and geopolitical conflict, prompting nations to assert greater autonomy. Rather than receding, climate initiatives are being recast as tangible opportunities for national economic and industrial development. This suggests that future environmental policy will require tighter state oversight and integration into national economic strategies, prioritizing sovereignty over global consensus.
中文摘要
巴黎協定簽署十年後，全球環境雄心正在經歷重大轉型，其焦點正從純粹的多邊承諾，轉向國家主導、由國家控制的議程。這種重新校準的驅動力來自於對經濟增長乏力、社會兩極化和地緣政治衝突日益加劇的擔憂，促使各國主張更高的自主權。氣候倡議並未消退，反而被重新定位為國家經濟和產業發展的具體機會。這表明，未來的環境政策將需要更嚴密的國家監管，並深度整合到國家經濟戰略中，將國家主權置於全球共識之上。
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