The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
From Fragmentation To Integration Prospects For Security Sector Reform In Post Assad Syria
English Summary
The paper argues that Syria’s post-Assad transition hinges on whether fragmented armed factions can be integrated into a credible national security architecture, and that the HTS-led interim authorities’ current approach is producing serious risks. It supports this by tracing the rapid collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024, HTS’s consolidation of control in early 2025, and subsequent violence on the coast and sectarian clashes in the south that expose weaknesses in force integration and command legitimacy. The report also maps the major armed actors (HTS, SDF, SNA, NLF, Islamic State, and regime remnants) and shows how their differing ideologies, structures, and funding streams complicate unification. Strategically, it implies that policymakers should prioritize inclusive, sequenced security-sector reform with external coordination, because narrow, faction-dominated integration is likely to fuel renewed instability and regional contestation.
中文摘要
該報告主張，敘利亞後阿塞德時期的過渡成敗，取決於能否將分散的武裝派系整合進一套具公信力的國家安全架構；而由HTS主導的臨時當局目前作法正產生嚴重風險。報告透過梳理2024年末阿塞德政權的快速崩潰、2025年初HTS對控制權的鞏固，以及其後沿海地區暴力事件與南部宗派衝突，指出武裝整合與指揮合法性存在明顯弱點。報告亦描繪主要武裝行為者（HTS、SDF、SNA、NLF、伊斯蘭國與前政權殘餘勢力），並顯示其意識形態、組織結構與資金來源差異如何加劇統合難度。從戰略層面看，報告意涵在於政策制定者應優先推動具包容性、分階段的安全部門改革並加強外部協調，因為狹隘且由單一派系主導的整合模式，極可能助長新一輪不穩定與區域競逐。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
Congress has significantly expanded presidential tariff authority by passing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, allowing the executive to impose up to 100% tariffs on key buyers of Russian energy and sanctions enablers. The article argues that this legislation represents a dangerous abdication of Congress's Article I authority, as it grants the executive vast, discretionary power without specifying criteria for enforcement. Historically, the executive could claim tariffs were its own doing; however, by writing and passing this new authority, Congress now owns the resulting trade policy and its economic consequences. This shift implies that future tariffs will be viewed by the public as a direct legislative action, potentially undermining the administration's credibility and creating political vulnerability.
-
3.
Cuba is on a trajectory toward an accelerating state and economic collapse, risking a point of no return. The state is deteriorating into "authoritarian anarchy," retaining its capacity for political repression but losing the ability to provide basic public services like health and safety. Economically, while the private sector is growing, this expansion is highly unequal, fueling cronyism and widening class gaps between the elite and the poor. If the current trend continues, the country risks calcifying these defects into a dysfunctional baseline, severely diminishing the chances of a stable, democratic transition.
-
4.
The article analyzes Finland's agreement to coordinate its conventional forces with French nuclear capabilities, clarifying that no nuclear weapons will be stationed in Finland. The author argues that increased communication between nuclear powers, rather than the deployment of weapons, is beneficial for reducing the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation, particularly near Russia. For Europe, the policy recommendation is a responsible middle course: strengthening non-nuclear military capabilities to deter Russia while simultaneously negotiating a stable system, such as non-aligned buffer states. This approach is presented as a diplomatic alternative to both aggressive military action and surrender.
-
5.
The analysis argues that contemporary warfare is marked by a return to great power competition, often fueled by strategic hubris and historical overconfidence. A key failure across modern conflicts is the 'short-war fallacy'—the assumption that overwhelming military force guarantees a quick, decisive victory. This mindset blinds policymakers to the need for sustained resource mobilization and complex political outcomes. Consequently, effective strategy requires linking military objectives with clear, comprehensive political goals, rather than pursuing rapid, decisive regime changes or military victories in isolation.