The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
From Fragmentation To Integration Prospects For Security Sector Reform In Post Assad Syria
English Summary
The paper argues that Syria’s post-Assad transition hinges on whether fragmented armed factions can be integrated into a credible national security architecture, and that the HTS-led interim authorities’ current approach is producing serious risks. It supports this by tracing the rapid collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024, HTS’s consolidation of control in early 2025, and subsequent violence on the coast and sectarian clashes in the south that expose weaknesses in force integration and command legitimacy. The report also maps the major armed actors (HTS, SDF, SNA, NLF, Islamic State, and regime remnants) and shows how their differing ideologies, structures, and funding streams complicate unification. Strategically, it implies that policymakers should prioritize inclusive, sequenced security-sector reform with external coordination, because narrow, faction-dominated integration is likely to fuel renewed instability and regional contestation.
中文摘要
該報告主張，敘利亞後阿塞德時期的過渡成敗，取決於能否將分散的武裝派系整合進一套具公信力的國家安全架構；而由HTS主導的臨時當局目前作法正產生嚴重風險。報告透過梳理2024年末阿塞德政權的快速崩潰、2025年初HTS對控制權的鞏固，以及其後沿海地區暴力事件與南部宗派衝突，指出武裝整合與指揮合法性存在明顯弱點。報告亦描繪主要武裝行為者（HTS、SDF、SNA、NLF、伊斯蘭國與前政權殘餘勢力），並顯示其意識形態、組織結構與資金來源差異如何加劇統合難度。從戰略層面看，報告意涵在於政策制定者應優先推動具包容性、分階段的安全部門改革並加強外部協調，因為狹隘且由單一派系主導的整合模式，極可能助長新一輪不穩定與區域競逐。
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