The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Understanding Partner Preferences in the Selection of Defense Capabilities: Case Studies Exploring the Selection of Alternatives to U.S. Solutions
English Summary
The report argues that while the U.S. remains a dominant defense supplier, partner nations are increasingly selecting non-U.S. alternatives due to complex motivations beyond mere cost or functionality. Analysis of eight case studies demonstrates that purchasing decisions are driven by strategic considerations, such as enhancing regional autonomy, strengthening ties with specific allies (e.g., Japan or Korea), and responding to perceived local vulnerabilities. For U.S. policy, the findings imply a need for greater anticipatory engagement; rather than solely focusing on sales, the U.S. should prioritize building trilateral partnerships, offering production licensing incentives, and adapting its security cooperation strategy to remain relevant when direct solutions are unavailable.
中文摘要
該報告指出，儘管美國仍是主要的國防供應商，但合作夥伴國家選擇非美替代方案的動機日益複雜，已超越單純的成本或功能考量。對八個案例研究的分析顯示，採購決策是由戰略考量所驅動的，例如提升區域自主性、鞏固與特定盟友（如日本或韓國）的關係，以及應對感知到的在地脆弱性。對於美國政策而言，這些發現暗示了其需要進行更具前瞻性的參與；美國不應僅專注於銷售，而應將重點放在建立三邊合作夥伴關係、提供生產授權激勵措施，並調整其安全合作戰略，以確保在無法提供直接解決方案時仍能保持相關性。
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