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Cost–benefit analysis for synthetic nucleic acid screening in the European Union

RAND | 2026-03-10 | europe

Topics: AI, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Trade, United States

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English Summary

A RAND cost-benefit analysis on synthetic nucleic acid screening in the European Union concludes that increased screening coverage yields significant societal benefits by reducing harm from biological accidents and misuse. Mandatory EU-wide regulation is projected to deliver the largest net benefits, estimated at €4.6 billion annually, significantly surpassing voluntary or conditional approaches. This is primarily due to the non-linear effects of near-universal coverage, which generates disproportionate risk reductions through direct detection and deterrence, with every €1 spent yielding €6 in avoided losses. The findings provide a strong economic rationale for EU-level intervention, supporting mandatory screening requirements, potentially through the EU Biotech Act, while emphasizing the need for proportionate implementation to minimize disruption to legitimate research and innovation.

中文摘要

一份關於歐盟合成核酸篩檢的蘭德成本效益分析指出,提高篩檢覆蓋率能顯著降低生物意外和濫用造成的危害,從而產生可觀的社會效益。預計實施歐盟範圍內的強制性法規將帶來最大的淨效益,估計每年可達46億歐元,遠超自願或有條件的做法。這主要歸因於近乎普及的覆蓋率所產生的非線性效應,透過直接檢測和威懾,帶來不成比例的風險降低,每投入1歐元即可避免6歐元的損失。這項研究結果為歐盟層面的干預提供了強有力的經濟依據,支持實施強制性篩檢要求,可能透過《歐盟生物技術法案》進行,同時強調需要採取適當的實施措施,以最大限度地減少對合法研究和創新的干擾。

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