The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Navigating Duality in Space: Establishing a Foundational Understanding of Dual-Use Space Activities
English Summary
Space systems increasingly serve both civilian and military functions, creating ambiguity that could lead to dangerous misinterpretations and escalation. RAND's three-year study found that stakeholders broadly recognize most space systems as dual-use, but no universal definition exists and nations lack explicit governance frameworks—most relying on implicit or ambiguous policies. The report recommends stakeholders adopt behavior-based governance frameworks focused on observable actions rather than intent, include diverse stakeholders in framework development, and address the lag between technological innovation and policy response. Such mechanisms could reduce misperception risks while enabling continued technological advancement in space capabilities.
中文摘要
太空系統日益具有民用與軍事雙重功能，造成可能引發危險誤解和升級的模糊性。美國蘭德公司三年研究發現，利益相關者普遍認識到大多數太空系統具雙重用途，但國際上缺乏統一定義，各國亦缺乏明確的治理框架—大多依賴隱含或模糊的政策。該報告建議利益相關者採納以行為為基礎的治理框架，側重於可觀測的行動而非意圖，在框架制定中納入多元利益相關者，並解決科技創新與政策回應之間的滯後。此類機制可降低誤解風險，同時使太空能力的持續技術進步成為可能。
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