The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
U.K. Defense Nuclear Enterprise 2026 Annual Update to Parliament
English Summary
The UK is undertaking a massive, complex recapitalization of its nuclear deterrent, framed as a 'National Endeavour.' This effort involves simultaneously managing multiple programs, including new submarine builds, warhead development, and re-establishing the nuclear fuel cycle. Progress has been made by bolstering the skills base, reforming regulations, and developing regional nuclear hubs. Strategically, this investment aims to ensure a credible deterrent for the future while simultaneously building industrial resilience and generating long-term economic opportunities.
中文摘要
英國正在進行一項規模龐大且複雜的核威懾力資本重組，並將其定調為「國家級宏大事業」。這項努力涉及同時管理多個計畫，包括建造新型潛艇、發展戰備彈頭，以及重建核燃料循環。目前，透過強化技能基礎、改革法規和發展區域核能中心等方面已取得進展。從戰略角度來看，這項投資旨在確保未來可信的威懾能力，同時亦能建立產業韌性並創造長期經濟機會。
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