The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Less Foreign Aid, More Climate Risk
English Summary
The article argues that escalating climate change poses massive, quantifiable economic risks, making the reduction of foreign aid a dangerous policy choice. Evidence highlights that global losses from natural disasters and climate-related disruptions already run into hundreds of billions of dollars annually, with projections suggesting physical climate risks could consume 3.2% to 5.1% of world GDP by 2050. Consequently, policy must pivot away from simple aid cuts toward strategic, large-scale investments. These investments must prioritize building climate resilience, upgrading critical infrastructure, and establishing robust early warning systems in vulnerable developing nations to mitigate future economic shocks.
中文摘要
本文提出，氣候變遷日益惡化，帶來巨大且可量化的經濟風險，使得削減外援成為一個極具風險的政策選擇。證據顯示，全球因自然災害和氣候相關中斷造成的損失每年已達數千億美元，且預測指出，到 2050 年，氣候物理風險可能佔全球 GDP 的 3.2% 至 5.1%。因此，政策必須從簡單的削減援助，轉向戰略性、大規模的投資。這些投資必須優先考慮在脆弱的發展中國家建立氣候韌性、升級關鍵基礎設施，並建立穩健的早期預警系統，以減緩未來的經濟衝擊。
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